One guy's take on the economy, the election and holiday shopping

This afternoon I was running around town gathering up the last of the items I needed for the holiday gift guide I mentioned earlier this week. One retailer asked me why I was looking for not-so-expensive gifts this year (his store carries items under $50, but he also stocks products that cost upwards of $2K). I explained that I was trying to be conscious of the fact that people want to keep their budgets in check right now, and that because of the economic situation readers will probably be on the lookout for creative gift ideas that won't break the bank.

Now, I am sure that his reply to me had something to do with the fact that he wanted to showcase a high-priced gift. I'm sure it also had something to do with a hopeful heart (in terms of his bottom line this holiday season). But he told me he thinks concerns over holiday retail spending are overblown. After the election, he said, things will stabilize and shoppers will go nuts (just like they always do).

Does he have a point, or is this just wishful thinking? I really hope he's right, but my gut tells me that all the retail forecasters are right -- shoppers will be very fiscally conservative this year.